Factfulness 10 Rules of Thumb
Factfulness helps you recognise and control these ten dramatic instincts that seem to be hard-wired into most peoples heads.10 Reglas:La realidad
La información te ayuda a reconocer y controlar estos diez instintos dramáticos que parecen estar conectados a la mayoría de las personas.
The Gap Instinct
Number 1 of 10 Rules of Thumb
Look for the Majority
Factfulness is . . . recognizing when a story talks
about a gap, and remembering that this paints a picture of two separate
groups, with a gap in between. The reality is often not polarized at
all. Usually the majority is right there in the middle, where the gap is
supposed to be.
To control the gap instinct, look for the majority.
• Beware comparisons of averages. If you could check the spreads you would probably find they overlap. There is probably no gap at all.
• Beware comparisons of extremes. In all groups, of
countries or people, there are some at the top and some at the bottom.
The difference is sometimes extremely unfair. But even then the majority
is usually somewhere in between, right where the gap is supposed to be.
• The view from up here. Remember, looking down from above distorts the view. Everything else looks equally short, but it’s not.
- Gap Instinct
- Negativity Instinct
- Single Instinct
- Fear Instinct
- Size Instinct
- Generalization Instinct
- Destiny Instinct
- Single Instinct
- Blame Instinct
- Urgency Instinct
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https://www.gapminder.org/factfulness/gap/
Factfulness 10 Rules of Thumb
Factfulness helps you recognise and control these ten dramatic instincts that seem to be hard-wired into most peoples heads.
Look for the Majority
Buscar la mayoría
La realidad
es. . . reconocer cuando una historia habla sobre una brecha, y recordar que
esto nos muestra una imagen de dos grupos separados, con una brecha en medio.
La realidad a menudo no está polarizada en absoluto. Por lo general, la mayoría
está justo en el medio, donde se supone que debe estar la brecha.
Para controlar
el instinto de la brecha, busque la mayoría.
• Cuidado con
las comparaciones de promedios. Si pudieras verificar los diferenciales,
probablemente encontrarías que se superponen. Probablemente no hay brecha en
absoluto.
• Cuidado con
las comparaciones de los extremos. En todos los grupos, de países o personas,
hay algunos en la parte superior y otros en la parte inferior. La diferencia es
a veces extremadamente injusta. Pero incluso entonces la mayoría suele estar en
algún punto intermedio, justo donde se supone que debe estar la brecha.
• La vista
desde aquí arriba. Recuerda, mirar hacia abajo distorsiona la vista. Todo lo
demás parece igualmente corto, pero no lo es
https://www.gapminder.org/factfulness/gap/
Factfulness is . . . recognizing when we get
negative news, and remembering that information about bad events is much
more likely to reach us. When things are getting better we often don’t
hear about them. This gives us a systematically too-negative impression
of the world around us, which is very stressful.
To control the negativity instinct, expect bad news.
• Better and bad. Practice distinguishing between a
level (e.g., bad) and a direction of change (e.g., better). Convince
yourself that things can be both better and bad.
• Good news is not news. Good news is almost never
reported. So news is almost always bad. When you see bad news, ask
whether equally positive news would have reached you.
• Gradual improvement is not news. When a trend is gradually improving, with periodic dips, you are more likely to notice the dips than the overall improvement.
• More news does not equal more suffering. More bad news is sometimes due to better surveillance of suffering, not a worsening world.
• Beware of rosy pasts. People often glorify their early experiences, and nations often glorify their histories.
https://www.gapminder.org/factfulness/negativity/
Lines might bend
Factfulness is . . . recognizing the assumption that a line will just continue straight, and remembering that such lines are rare in reality.
To control the straight line instinct, remember that curves come in different shapes.
• Don’t assume straight lines. Many trends do not
follow straight lines but are S-bends, slides, humps, or doubling lines.
No child ever kept up the rate of growth it achieved in its first six
months, and no parents would expect it to.
https://www.gapminder.org/factfulness/straightline/
Calculate the risks
Factfulness is . . . recognizing when frightening
things get our attention, and remembering that these are not necessarily
the most risky. Our natural fears of violence, captivity, and
contamination make us systematically overestimate these risks.
To control the fear instinct, calculate the risks.
• The scary world: fear vs. reality. The world seems
scarier than it is because what you hear about it has been selectedby
your own attention filter or by the media—precisely because it is scary.
• Risk = danger × exposure. The risk something poses
to you depends not on how scared it makes you feel, but on a
combination of two things. How dangerous is it? And how much are you
exposed to it?
• Get calm before you carry on. When you are afraid, you see the world differently. Make as few decisions as possible until the panic has subsided.
Get things in proportion
Factfulness is . . . recognizing when a lonely
number seems impressive (small or large), and remembering that you could
get the opposite impression if it were compared with or divided by some
other relevant number.
To control the size instinct, get things in proportion.
• Compare. Big numbers always look big. Single
numbers on their own are misleading and should make you suspicious.
Always look for comparisons. Ideally, divide by something.
• 80/20. Have you been given a long list? Look for
the few largest items and deal with those first. They are quite likely
more important than all the others put together.
• Divide. Amounts and rates can tell very di fferent
stories. Rates are more meaningful, especially when comparing between
different-sized groups. In particular, look for rates per person when
comparing between countries or regions.
https://www.gapminder.org/factfulness/size/
Question your categories
Factfulness is . . . recognizing when a category is
being used in an explanation, and remembering that categories can be
misleading. We can’t stop generalization and we shouldn’t even try. What
we should try to do is to avoid generalizing incorrectly.
To control the generalization instinct, question your categories.
• Look for differences within groups. Especially when the groups are large, look for ways to split them into smaller, more precise categories. And . . .
• Look for similarities across groups. If you find striking similarities between different groups, consider whether your categories are relevant. But also . . .
• Look for differences across groups. Do not assume
that what applies for one group (e.g., you and other people living on
Level 4 or unconscious soldiers) applies for another (e.g., people not
living on Level 4 or sleeping babies).
• Beware of “the majority.” The majority just means more than half. Ask whether it means 51 percent, 99 percent, or something in between.
• Beware of vivid examples. Vivid images are easier to recall but they might be the exception rather than the rule.
• Assume people are not idiots. When something looks strange, be curious and humble, and think, In what way is this a smart solution?
La realidad es. . . reconocer cuándo
se está utilizando una categoría en una explicación, y recordar que las
categorías pueden ser engañosas.
- No podemos detener la generalización
y ni siquiera deberíamos intentarlo. Lo que debemos tratar de hacer es evitar
generalizar incorrectamente.
Para controlar el instinto de
generalización, cuestiona tus categorías.
• Busca diferencias dentro de los
grupos. Especialmente cuando los grupos son grandes, busque formas de
dividirlos en categorías más pequeñas y precisas.
Y . .
• Busque similitudes entre los
grupos. Si encuentra similitudes sorprendentes entre los diferentes grupos,
considere si sus categorías son relevantes.
Pero también . . .
• Busque las diferencias entre los
grupos. No asuma que lo que se aplica a un grupo (por ejemplo, usted y otras
personas que viven en el Nivel 4 o soldados inconscientes) se aplica a otro (por ejemplo,
las personas que no viven en el Nivel 4 o bebés durmientes).
• Tenga cuidado con “la mayoría”. La
mayoría solo significa más de la mitad.Pregunte si significa 51 por ciento,
99 por ciento o algo intermedio.
• Cuidado con los ejemplos vívidos.
Las imágenes vívidas son más fáciles de recordar, pero pueden ser la excepción
y no la regla.
• Supongamos que las personas no son
idiotas. Cuando algo parezca extraño, sé curioso y humilde, y piensa: ¿De qué manera es esta una
solución inteligente?
https://www.gapminder.org/factfulness/generalization/
Factfulness is . . . recognizing that many things
(including people, countries, religions, and cultures) appear to be
constant just because the change is happening slowly, and remembering
that even small, slow changes gradually add up to big changes.
To control the destiny instinct, remember slow change is still change.
• Keep track of gradual improvements. A small change every year can translate to a huge change over decades.
• Update your knowledge. Some knowledge goes out of date quickly. Technology, countries, societies, cultures, and religions are constantly changing.
• Talk to Grandpa. If you want to be reminded of how values have changed, think about your grandparents’ values and how they differ from yours.
• Collect examples of cultural change. Challenge the idea that today’s culture must also have been yesterday’s, and will also be tomorrow’s.
https://www.gapminder.org/factfulness/destiny/
Factfulness is . . . recognizing that a single
perspective can limit your imagination, and remembering that it is
better to look at problems from many angles to get a more accurate
understanding and find practical solutions.
To control the single perspective instinct, get a toolbox, not a hammer.
• Test your ideas. Don’t collect only examples that
show how excellent your favorite ideas are. Have people who disagree
with you test your ideas and find their weaknesses.
• Limited expertise. Don’t claim expertise beyond
your field: be humble about what you don’t know. Be aware too of the
limits of the expertise of others.
• Hammers and nails. If you are good with a tool,
you may want to use it too often. If you have analyzed a problem in
depth, you can end up exaggerating the importance of that problem or of
your solution. Remember that no one tool is good for everything. If your
favorite idea is a hammer, look for colleagues with screwdrivers,
wrenches, and tape measures. Be open to ideas from other fields.
Numbers, but not only numbers. The world cannot be understood without
numbers, and it cannot be understood with numbers alone. Love numbers
for what they tell you about real lives.
• Beware of simple ideas and simple solutions.
History is full of visionaries who used simple utopian visions to
justify terrible actions. Welcome complexity. Combine ideas. Compromise.
Solve problems on a case-by-case basis.
https://www.gapminder.org/factfulness/single/
Look for causes, not villains. When something goes
wrong don’t look for an individual or a group to blame. Accept that bad
things can happen without anyone intending them to. Instead spend your
energy on understanding the multiple interacting causes, or system, that
created the situation.
• Look for systems, not heroes. When someone claims
to have caused something good, ask whether the outcome might have
happened anyway, even if that individual had done nothing. Give the
system some credit.
https://www.gapminder.org/factfulness/blame/
To control the urgency instinct, take small steps.
• Take a breath. When your urgency instinct is
triggered, your other instincts kick in and your analysis shuts down.
Ask for more time and more information. It’s rarely now or never and
it’s rarely either/or.
• Insist on the data. If something is urgent and
important, it should be measured. Beware of data that is relevant but
inaccurate, or accurate but irrelevant. Only relevant and accurate data
is useful.
• Beware of fortune-tellers. Any prediction about
the future is uncertain. Be wary of predictions that fail to acknowledge
that. Insist on a full range of scenarios, never just the best or worst
case. Ask how often such predictions have been right before.
• Be wary of drastic action. Ask what the side
effects will be. Ask how the idea has been tested. Step-by-step
practical improvements, and evaluation of their impact, are less
dramatic but usually more effective.
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https://www.gapminder.org/factfulness/urgency/
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The book Factfulness will be printed in 24 languages. Get it at your library or order it here »
https://www.gapminder.org/factfulness-book/
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